Friday 3 August 2007

How bad were July Auto sales really?

This from Minyanville.com's Five Things You Need to Know column yesterday:

3. Glass Cracked and Leaking On Our Pants?

As many feared, auto sales were horrible in July, falling 12% in figures that encompass most major auto manufacturers including Toyota (TM), which saw a 7% decline.

  • General Motors (GM) sales fell 22%, Ford Motor Co. (F) fell 19% and Chrysler Group (DCX) 8%.
  • As well, Detroit automakers' share of the U.S. market dropped below 50% in July for the first time in history, according to Jesse Toprak, senior analyst for the Edmunds.com automotive Web site.
  • These sales figures go hand-in-hand with the consumer view expressed int he WSJ/NBC poll that if we aren't already in recession, we may soon be.
  • It's not every month we see double digit year-over-year declines in auto sales.
  • According to Merrill's David Rosenberg, other months where auto sales were down double digits include a 12% year-over-year decline in Dec. 2000; a 10.8% decline in April 1990; a 10.8% decline in July 1981; and an 11.1% decline in Dec, 1979.
  • What do all of those months have in common? According to Rosenberg they were three months or less away from the official start of an economic downturn.

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