Friday 3 August 2007

2/3 of Americans see recession ahead

From the Wall Street Journal:

America's Economic Mood: Gloomy

Broad Public Pessimism
Spurs Democratic Candidates
To Target Business Interests
By JOHN HARWOOD
August 2, 2007; Page A4

WASHINGTON -- Americans are feeling decidedly sour about the economy and those in charge of it, fueling Democratic efforts to target business interests in the 2008 election campaign.

More than two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. economy is either in recession now or will be in the next year, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows. That assessment comes despite the fact the economy has experienced sustained growth with low inflation and unemployment and generally rising stock values ever since the recession that ended early in President Bush's tenure.


Never thought I'd agree with the majority of Americans but hey there's a first time for everything. Despite the chorus of economists chanting "moderate" growth there are clear signs of a recession looming in 2008.

The earnings cycle is on it's last legs, the consumer is taking a standing 8 count and the credit crunch after a few telling left jabs is lining up the chin of private equity, homebuilders, mortgage providers and anything else that dares get in it's path for a devastating right cross.

Hell, blind Freddy could see a US recession coming. There, I've said it and I feel much better. Make sure to come back and castigate me when the US economy sails effortlessly through 2008 at some moderate growth rate.

2 Comments:

Anonymous said...

dhukka,

Unemployment low due to birth/death model.

Inflation low due to exclusion of food, petrol inflation.

Walmart inventories will be an interesting snapshot of the US consumer.

If the US consumer goes under, Asia will feel the love.

Australia will feel the love from China as they cut imports, and your bull market will hit a hiccup.

NZ is just plain f****d.

jog on
grant

The Fundamental Analyst said...

Yep,

However there are still many true believers out there with faith in the "China will come to the rescue" and the "resources boom will save Australia" mentality.

As you say the if the US consumer tanks, so will China and of course pissant little Australia and NZ.