Thursday, 15 November 2007

PBP Investor Update

Probiotech (PBP) held their Annual General Meeting today and released their unaudited earnings results for the first four months of the 2008 financial year.

Things look to be going well for the business and they are on track to meet their 2008 forecast of 30% profit before tax growth. Using the numbers given for the 4 months to October 2007 as a proxy gives the following forecast for the full year:

The above is calculated by simply multiplying the 4 month numbers by 3 to get a full year forecast. As you can see based on this estimate the company should be able to meet it's guidance of at least 30% profit before tax growth fairly easily. The above assumes that the company continues at it's current earnings rate, hopefully they can do better than that. The slight improvement in margins so far this financial year suggests they can.

Of course these numbers are excluding any potential liability from the Phoscal litigation claim, which, although being a one off item, is still a cloud over the stock in the short to medium term.