Wednesday, 21 November 2007

Best Housing Coverage on the Net

For possibly the best coverage of housing on the net Calculated Risk is a must read. Today's analysis of starts and completions makes my reporting look very amateurish. Below are some of the more important points in the analysis:

Housing Starts and Completions for October

The small increase in starts is just noise. With permits falling, starts will continue to fall in coming months. With record inventories, this report shows that the builders are still starting too many homes....

Completions were at a 1.436 million rate in October, but are about to follow starts down to the 1.2 million level. I'd expect completions to fall rapidly over the next few months, impacting residential construction employment.

In a second post on today's housing data Calculated Risk looks at the most important component of Housing starts - single unit structures.

Housing Starts for Single Unit Structures

This graph shows permits, starts and completions for single unit structures.
Starts and permits are shifted six months into the future.

Completions will fall significantly over the next 6 months, probably to under 900K at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).

Different graph same conclusion, housing has further to fall.