Wednesday, 14 November 2007

Another month another NAR revision

From the National Association of Realtors:

Modest Recovery for Existing-Home Sales in 2008 as Credit Crunch Subsides

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 0.2 percent to a reading of 85.7 from an index of 85.5 in August. It was 20.4 percent lower than the September 2006 level of 107.6....

Existing-home sales are projected at 5.67 million this year, edging up to 5.69 million in 2008, in comparison with 6.48 million in 2006 which was the third highest year on record. Existing-home prices are expected to decline 1.7 percent to a median of $218,200 for all of this year and hold essentially even in 2008 at $218,300.

If you remember, chief cheerleader at the NAR, Lawrence Yun, downgraded his outlook for existing home sales last month for the eighth straight time, so this makes nine and undoubtedly he will make it 10 next month.

The NAR's forecasts for home prices in 2008 are equally laughable given the outlook for housing and in light of calls from other economists predicting anywhere from 5% - to 25% declines next year. The NAR expects median exisiting home prices to "hold essentially even in 2008". Yeah, OK Mr Yun... until next month.