Friday, 30 November 2007

OFHEO Home Price Report


For the first time in nearly thirteen years, U.S. home prices experienced a quarterly decline. The OFHEO House Price Index (HPI), which is based on data from sales and refinance transactions, was 0.4 percent lower in the third quarter than in the second quarter of 2007. This is similar to the quarterly decline of 0.3 percent (seasonally-adjusted) shown in the purchase-only index. The annual price change, comparing the third quarter of 2007 to the same period last year showed an increase of 1.8 percent , the lowest four-quarter increase since 1995. OFHEO’s purchase-only index, which is based solely on purchase price data, indicates the same rate of appreciation over the last year....

I found this part interesting:

Many of the cities and states experiencing the sharpest declines this quarter were the same cities and states experiencing the sharpest increases just a couple of years ago, suggesting some price corrections in those markets.

Anyone looking for a bottom in house prices anytime soon is going to be disappointed. Nouriel Roubini has said home prices could fall more than 20% nationally, in some regions they already have. Roubini's estimate may turn out to be conservative.