Australian employment fell for the first time in 18 months according to the abs today. Employment fell by 19,700 of which just over half were full-time.
Before getting too excited over these numbers we would do well to remember that employment is a lagging indicator and that one month does not make a trend. There is no doubt that a slowdown in economic activity is underway in Australia, however it typically takes a while to see weakness show up in the labour market.
We would want to see the unemployment rate tick up toward 5.0% to signal a significant pullback in hiring by businesses.
Expect the labour market to remain reasonably tight for a few months yet. That said, the RBA may feel less pressure to raise rates anytime soon. The July futures contract now showing only a 2% chance of a rate hike in July.