Thursday, 28 February 2008

Initial Jobless Claims jumps in latest week.



In the week ending Feb. 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 373,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 354,000. The 4-week moving average was 360,500, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average of 361,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 16, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 16 was 2,807,000, an increase of 21,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,786,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,777,500, an increase of 24,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,753,250.

The 4 week moving average declined slightly by 1,250 however that is largely due to the 2 and half year high number of 378k dropping out of the calculations. As happened last week the previous week was revised upwards, this week by 5k.

Claims remain elevated at the 360k mark. Wall Street lemmings continue to proclaim that jobless claims are not yet at recessionary levels. However by the time they are at recessionary levels, the recession will be well underway and by that time, making the recession call, as Gary Shilling recently said, is about as useful as a pocket in your underpants.