Claims 4 Week Avg Highest In More Than 2 Years

The 4 week moving average of Initial jobless claims continues to inch up, the latest reading at its highest level since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in October 2005. Excluding Katrina the 4 week average was has not seen current levels since June 2004. From the US Department of Labor:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Feb. 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 357,000. The 4-week moving average was 347,250, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised average of 335,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending Feb. 2, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb. 2 was 2,761,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,770,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,727,500, an increase of 3,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,724,000.

The 4 week MA rose above the 340k area in December only to recede in January, however that had more to do with seasonal adjustments than a drop off in claimants. Expect the 4 week MA to punch decisively through the the 350k mark in the next few weeks.