Wednesday, 12 September 2007

Optimistic Chuckle-heads at the NAR

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) issued their 7th straight downward revision to existing home sales yesterday. NAR now see existing home sales in 2007 at 5.92 million units. Remember Goldman Sachs (GS) just downgraded their estimates for 2007 to approximately 5.77 million units.

However this is the real kicker, the NAR is predicting existing home sales to rebound in 2008 by 5.8% to 6.28 million units. In contrast GS sees 2008 existing home sales falling to around 4.9 million units - a rather large difference of 22%.

In addition the NAR optimistically sees median house prices rising 2.2% next year whilst just about everyone else in the market is expecting outright price declines across most of the country. Absolute chuckle-heads.

Calculated risk had an amusing post comparing the headlines of NAR's monthly reports since December 2006. If the NAR were to come clean and be honest next month's headline would read something like, "Actually we haven't got a clue."