Wednesday, 19 September 2007

Building permits & Housing starts still tumbling


Starts of new homes fell by 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.331 million, which was the lowest since June 1995. Authorized building permits, meanwhile, fell by 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.307 million, also the lowest since June 1995.

Remember that these numbers are volatile and subject to large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government can't be sure whether starts increased or decreased. Large revisions are common.

Permits are generally considered a better indicator of building fundamentals than starts, which can be heavily influenced by weather conditions. The sampling error on permits is also lower.

These numbers coupled with yesterdays figures on foreclosures and builders sentiment simply confirm that there is more pain to come in the housing market.

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