Positive news outshone the negative again yesterday in the US on the back of news that factory orders were up 3.1% in March against an expectation of 2.2%. The negative, private-sector jobs rose by only 64,000 in April, the weakest monthly growth in four years.
A couple of months back I listed a number of major US firms laying off workers. According to outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas job reduction announcements by major U.S. corporations soared by 44% to 70,672 in April representing an 18% increase from April 2006 and the first time since September 2006 that layoffs rose on a year-over-year comparison. The Challenger figures only cover a drop in the ocean of those that lose their jobs each month. The latest figures from the labor department show that a total of 1.2 million workers were discharged from their jobs involuntarily in February
On Friday the Labor Department will release the all important non-farm payrolls report. Expectations are for a modest 100,000 gain in employment. Housing and employment are two of the best indicators of the health of the economy. With housing looking pretty sick, poorer than expected employment figures will not bode well and it may be to much of a negative for the market to ignore.
Thursday, 3 May 2007
All important Jobs
Posted by The Fundamental Analyst
Labels: Economy
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4 Comments:
Scott,
I read the same report, makes for harrowing reading.
The Market on the back of LBO record activity [that record in 2000 has now been broken] and Company share buybacks are the only two elements keeping the *world* markets afloat.
The top is gradually approaching, I still think this time next year.
jog on
grant
The LBO, M&A activity or at least the rumors of such are becoming more frenetic by the day. I think you are right its going to take a while for the US slowdown to really kick-in and for sentiment to change. Earnings are still holding up but maybe just for another quarter or two. It will be interesting to see next month's payroll numbers after yesterday's.
On the latest job numbers did you see the Birth/Death line added 157000 jobs, or some such ridiculous number.
It's gone from bad to mad.
The DJIA being mega-caps are a little "safer" in their valuations, the crunch will absolutely destroy the small-caps etc.
The DJIA will fall, but, not as hard as the smaller ones.
jog on
grant
Grant,
Actually the number for the birth death adjustment according to 'THE BIG PICTURE' was 317,000 - the largest adjustment on record for any single month. So 88k is especially soft considering the economy needs 150k jobs growth per month just to keep up with population growth. Full story below:
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/economy/index.html
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