Saturday 24 February 2007

Updates, follow-ups and other stuff 2

Probiotec - not giving much away:
I fired off some questions to management about PBP's 1H07 result. More specifically I was interested in why the company changed their accounting policy for depreciation, how much product development research they intend to capitalize over the coming 6 months and if they intend to continue to pay down debt over the coming six months. Management's comments - depreciation policy was changed as "management believes past depreciation levels were distorting profits negatively" I bet they do. Capex and optimum gearing levels "cannot be discolsed at this time." The company is sticking to their guns about meeting prospectus forecasts and if they don't they can always adjust the amount of capitalized expenses to make it so. I continue to cautiously hold.

PWK - not burning shareholder value:
On February 13th PWK gave the market an update on the progress of the plan (now called 'project runway')to construct a submarine cable linking Sydney to Guam. There was not much in the report to excite the market. What I was impressed with was management's comments that "Pipe Networks will not proceed with the project unless the firm commitments ensure the financial viability of the project. This is in line with our standard investment philosophy and no investment will be made without the support of sufficient final revenue generating contracts." It gives me comfort as a shareholder to know that management is not sucked in to the mentality of seeking growth at any cost.

Reporting season US 4Q06, AUS 1H07
The latest on 4Q06 earnings in the US from Zacks tells us that more than 75% of S&P500 companies have now reported earnings. Surprises outweigh disappointments 3:1 with the median growth in earnings for the quarter standing at a healthy 13%. The point to note is the forecast deterioration in earnings for 1Q07 to a median of 8%.

If anyone can tell me where I can find data like this for the ASX I would love to know. All 1H07 results for June year end companies on the ASX are due by the end of this month. I can't give any definitive commentary on earnings growth rates however below is a table of major companies that have reported to date.

3 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Scott,

We've talked about this before [Probiotic]. Changing an accounting policy, huge red flag, lowering Depreciation to improve Net Profit & Cashflow from Operations....outrageous.

This [in my book] if holding is a sell.

Paradoxically, due to the current bull market conditions on the ASX and the general lack of research, if the company declares higher earnings [manipulated] in the current environment, the stock may well catapult higher.

Horrible decision.

jog on
grant

Anonymous said...

Scott,

Just had a look at the earnings data.

The one that would start ringing alarm bells would be the *Financials* with 22 reporting negative earnings surprises. These will be possibly due in the main to the deteriorating sub-prime segment.

The positive earnings surprises will be due in main to the high LBO activity currently, and the very high CDO activity.

Both of these activities are in essence working with CCC credits [Junk] and will have potential for repercussions down the road.

jog on
grant

The Fundamental Analyst said...

Grant,

Agree about Pro-biotec, I don't think the company appreciated my line of questioning - they were very slow to respond and quite abrupt. I didn't get a good feeling from them at all. They just finished an institutional roadshow last week and looking at volumes were unable to drum up any support for the stock. It's time to bail.

Good point about the financials, there is a good chance that this is the sector that could kick off a correction of sorts. We haven;t had any major institutions get hit hard yet - that's all it may take. Did you Barings last week talking about the deterioration of their household credit book? Interesting times.