Another Leg Down for US Housing

BUILDING PERMITS

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 786,000. This is 8.3 percent (±1.6%) below the revised August rate of 857,000 and is 38.4 percent (±1.6%)below the revised September 2007 estimate of 1,277,000.

Single-family
authorizations in September were at a rate of 532,000; this is 3.8 percent (±1.6%) below the August figure of 553,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 225,000 in September.

Permits have equaled the low reached in January 1991. If permits fall lower (which I'm sure they will) you would have to go back to 1982 to see lower numbers.

HOUSING STARTS

Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000. This is 6.3 percent (±12.0%)* below the revised August estimate of 872,000 and is 31.1 percent (±8.3%) below the revised September 2007 rate of 1,185,000.

Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 544,000; this is 12.0 percent (±8.3%) below the August figure of 618,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 254,000.

Starts are now at their lowest since January 1991 whilst single family starts are at their lowest since February 1982.

HOUSING COMPLETIONS

Privately-owned housing completions in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,097,000. This is 11.7 percent (±14.0%)* above the revised August estimate of 982,000, but is 20.4 percent (±9.6%) below the revised September 2007 rate of 1,378,000.

Single-family housing completions in September were at a rate of 806,000; this is 17.0 percent (±11.5%) above the August figure of 689,000. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 260,000.

Completions were higher but given that they follow starts they will fall sharply in coming months.

Also yesterday, the builder's sentiment index fell to record low of 14 in September. Given what has happened to the economy in late September and into October hsousing clearly has further to fall both in temrs of activity and prices. Soon we will crash through all records set in the last housing implosion in the early 1990's and there is a high probabiltiy that the lows of the early 1980's will be taken out as well.