Thursday, 5 February 2009

ADP - Half Million US Job Losses in January

The ADP report released on Wednesday estimated that non-farm employment decreased -522k in January following a revised -653k in December.The ADP data suggests the peak of monthly job losses may have been in December.

However that may be thrown off by the survey week which has some seasonal anomalies around the early part of the year and the fact that the BLS does it's yearly revision with the January NFP report. Below is an excerpt from the ADP report:

January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 279,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 243,000, the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 160,000, its twenty-eighth decline over the last twenty-nine months.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 92,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 255,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 175,000. Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession continues to spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.

The emphasis in bold is mine. Also out on Wednesday, the monthly Challenger Gray and Christmas report showed 45% more layoffs in January than December with retailers announcing their biggest number of layoffs ever.

All data points to a nasty NFP report on Friday,economists are expecting around around -525k jobs lost with the unemployment rate rising towards 7.5%.