Saturday, 15 December 2007

How silly will the NAR look in 2008?

It would be difficult to make the NAR look much sillier than they did this year with 9 consecutive downgrades to their existing home sales forecasts but I'm betting they can top that effort in 2008 with their current prediction for existing home sales.

Calculated Risk had a post yesterday on more housing forecasts. In that post the NAR's forecasts were compared with that of Goldman Sachs, Moody's and Global Insights which I decided to put it in a graph. Note that Golman has become somewhat more bearish on the US economy since this forecast was made back in August.

Hands up if you think the NAR is too optimistic? Whilst Moody's forecasts may look too low, I'm willing to bet that the final number for existing home sales in 2008 will be closer to Moody's forecast than the NAR's.